Real Estate Publications "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership" Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics and Professor of finance, Yale University, and Chief Economist, MacroMarkets LLC, August 2007 This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. Read full article "Systemic Risks in Residential Property Valuations Perception and Reality" Terry Loebs, Collateral Assessment & Technologies Committee (CATC), June 2005 In this whitepaper, biases in traditional and automated residential valuation processes are examined in the context of declining real estate markets. Read full article "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 02:2003 [65pp] THE POPULAR PRESS is full of speculation that the United States, as well as other countries, is in a "housing bubble" that is about to burst. How do we know if the housing market is in a bubble? Read full article "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market" Robert Shiller, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley [25pp], October 2001 In this paper, we examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. Read full article "High Time to Share" Terry Loebs, Mortgage Banking, January 2001 In this article, the merits of shared appreciation mortgage products are evaluated, and the relative returns, volatility and correlations of the housing asset class are examined. Read full article "Moral Hazard and Home Equity Conversion" Robert Shiller and Allan Weiss, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 28, No. 1, 2000.[see CFDP 1177, CFP 1015] In this paper, we discuss the potential problem of moral hazard and how it could create serious future losses for investors. Read full article "Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems" Robert Shiller and Allan N. Weiss, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999) 18(2):147-61. [CFP 983] In this paper, a framework for comparing meal estate valuation systems (including automated valuation models (AVMs) and current appraisal methods) is proposed. Read full article "Home Equity Insurance" Robert Shiller and Allan Weiss, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 19:1, 21-47, 1999. [see CFDP 1074, CFP 1007] Home equity insurance policies, policies insuring homeowners against declines in the price of their homes, could bear some resemblance both to ordinary insurance and to financial hedging vehicles. Read full article "Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, Journal of Housing Research (1996), 7(2): 243-258. [see CFDP 1098] This paper argues that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. Read full article "A Decade of Boom and Bust in Single Family Home Prices: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983-1993" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, Revue D'Economie Financiere (December 1993), pp. 389-407. Reprinted in New England Economic Review (March/April 1994), pp. 40-51. While prices do not boom as they did in Boston and Los Angeles unless market fundamentals are positive, evidence is mounting that at least part of the increase in both metro areas can be attributed to speculative behavior on the part of buyers and sellers. Read full article "Index-Based Futures and Options Trading in Real Estate" Robert Shiller, Karl E. Case and Allan N. Weiss, Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 1993). [CFDP 1006] In this paper, we propose that cash-settled futures and options markets be opened on real estate to better allow diversification and hedging, and show that these markets solve problems that have hampered other real estate hedging media in the past. Read full article "Sizing-Up Prepayment Rates" Terry Loebs, Mortgage Banking, February 1993 In this article, the implications of common assumptions regarding consensus prepayment rates are examined in the context of mortgage-backed securities and mortgage servicing rights pricing. Read full article "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, AREUEA Journal (1990), 18(3): 253-273. Price changes in one year tend to continue for more than one year in the same direction. The results add weight to the argument that the market for single family homes is inefficient. Read full article "The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family Homes" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, American Economic Review (March 1989), 79(1): 125-37. (Reprinted in John M. Quigley (ed.), The Economics of Housing, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1997.) The market for Single Family Homes does not appear to be efficient Read full article "Prices of Single-Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, New England Economic Review (September/October 1987), pp. 46-56. [CFDP 851] Here we explain the construction of what we call a weighted repeat sales index (WRS), discuss the results and compare them with the National Association of Realtors data on the median price of existing single family homes for the period 1981 - 1986. Read full article "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets" Robert Shiller and Karl E. Case, New England Economic Review (November/December, 1988), pp. 29-46. Reprinted in Russian in Constants (Ukraine) (1993), 1(2): 1-20. Home prices move in dramatically different ways at the same time in different parts of the country. Read full article

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