| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| HOME PRICE EXPECTATIONS
SURVEY RESULTS: SEPTEMBER 2011 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Estimated
Home Price Performance (Q4/Q4) |
|
|
Cumulative |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Panelist |
Title |
Affiliation |
Response Date |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
| |
|
Esmael Adibi |
Director |
Chapman University |
9/6/2011 |
-2.80% |
2.50% |
4.40% |
3.80% |
3.10% |
-2.80% |
-0.37% |
4.01% |
7.97% |
11.31% |
|
|
| |
|
Scott Anderson |
Director and Senior Economist |
Wells Fargo |
9/14/2011 |
-3.30% |
-1.10% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
-3.30% |
-4.36% |
-2.45% |
-0.50% |
1.99% |
|
|
| |
|
Ryan Atkinson |
Chief Market Analyst |
Balestra Capital Ltd |
9/8/2011 |
-3.00% |
-5.00% |
-2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
-3.00% |
-7.85% |
-9.69% |
-9.69% |
-8.79% |
|
|
| |
|
Dean Baker |
Co-Director |
Center for Economic & Policy Research |
9/2/2011 |
-3.30% |
-5.00% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
-3.30% |
-8.14% |
-6.30% |
-3.96% |
-1.55% |
|
|
| |
|
Paul Ballew |
Economist |
Nationwide |
9/2/2011 |
-4.20% |
-2.80% |
0.20% |
1.50% |
2.20% |
-4.20% |
-6.88% |
-6.70% |
-5.30% |
-3.21% |
|
|
| |
|
Alex Barron |
Founder & Senior Research Analyst |
Housing Research Center |
9/2/2011 |
-4.00% |
-3.00% |
-2.00% |
-1.00% |
0.00% |
-4.00% |
-6.88% |
-8.74% |
-9.65% |
-9.65% |
|
|
| |
|
Bob Baur |
Chief Global Economist |
Principal Global Investors |
9/9/2011 |
0.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
4.04% |
6.12% |
8.24% |
|
|
| |
|
Mark Beardsell |
SVP, Head of Risk Analytics |
Radian Group |
9/14/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Nariman Behravesh |
Chief Economist |
IHS Global Insight |
9/15/2011 |
-5.20% |
1.30% |
5.70% |
8.30% |
7.90% |
-5.20% |
-3.97% |
1.51% |
9.93% |
18.62% |
|
|
| |
|
David Berson |
Chief Economist |
PMI Group |
9/9/2011 |
0.50% |
1.90% |
3.10% |
3.30% |
3.70% |
0.50% |
2.41% |
5.58% |
9.07% |
13.10% |
|
|
| |
|
Jay Brinkmann |
Chief Economist |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
9/12/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Teunis Brosens |
Economist |
ING Financial Markets |
9/9/2011 |
0.40% |
0.30% |
1.40% |
1.80% |
2.60% |
0.40% |
0.70% |
2.11% |
3.95% |
6.65% |
|
|
| |
|
John Brynjolfsson |
Chief Investment Officer |
Armored Wolf, LLC |
9/9/2011 |
-5.00% |
-10.00% |
-5.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
-5.00% |
-14.50% |
-18.78% |
-18.78% |
-17.15% |
|
|
| |
|
Joseph Carson |
Chief Economist |
Alliance Bernstein |
9/9/2011 |
-0.50% |
1.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
-0.50% |
0.50% |
3.01% |
6.10% |
9.81% |
|
|
| |
|
Bill Cheney |
Chief Economist |
John Hancock Financial |
9/2/2011 |
0.00% |
3.00% |
5.00% |
5.00% |
3.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
8.15% |
13.56% |
16.96% |
|
|
| |
|
Christine Chmura / Xiaobing Shuai |
Chief Economist / Senior Economist |
Chmura Economics & Analytics |
9/15/2011 |
-4.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
5.00% |
-4.00% |
-4.00% |
-1.12% |
2.84% |
7.98% |
|
|
| |
|
Mike Cosgrove |
Principal |
The Econoclast |
9/8/2011 |
-1.50% |
-0.50% |
1.00% |
1.50% |
1.50% |
-1.50% |
-1.99% |
-1.01% |
0.47% |
1.98% |
|
|
| |
|
Amy Crews Cutts |
Chief Economist |
IXI Corp. |
9/15/2011 |
-1.00% |
1.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
5.00% |
-1.00% |
-0.01% |
2.99% |
7.11% |
12.46% |
|
|
| |
|
David Crowe |
Chief Economist |
National Association of Home Builders |
9/15/2011 |
-3.00% |
1.00% |
1.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
-3.00% |
-2.03% |
-0.56% |
2.42% |
6.01% |
|
|
| |
|
Paul Dales |
Economist |
Capital Economics Ltd |
9/1/2011 |
-3.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
3.50% |
4.00% |
-3.00% |
-3.00% |
-3.00% |
0.39% |
4.41% |
|
|
| |
|
Michael Darda |
Chief Economist |
MKM Partners |
9/9/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Rajeev Dhawan |
Director, Economic Forecasting Center |
Georgia State University |
9/14/2011 |
-3.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
5.00% |
5.00% |
-3.00% |
-3.00% |
-0.09% |
4.91% |
10.15% |
|
|
| |
|
Robert DiClemente |
Chief U.S. Economist |
Citigroup |
9/15/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
John Dolan |
President |
Second Order Strategies, Inc. |
9/15/2011 |
-1.00% |
-5.00% |
0.00% |
1.50% |
3.50% |
-1.00% |
-5.95% |
-5.95% |
-4.54% |
-1.20% |
|
|
| |
|
Richard Dorfman |
Managing Director |
SIFMA |
9/1/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
David Downs |
Real Estate Finance Professor |
Virginia Commonwealth University |
9/14/2011 |
-1.00% |
1.50% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
-1.00% |
0.49% |
3.00% |
6.09% |
9.27% |
|
|
| |
|
Doug Duncan |
Chief Economist |
Fannie Mae |
9/14/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Robert Dye |
Chief Economist |
Comerica Bank |
9/9/2011 |
-2.20% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
3.50% |
4.00% |
-2.20% |
-2.20% |
-0.24% |
3.25% |
7.38% |
|
|
| |
|
Michael Englund |
Chief Economist |
Action Economics LLC |
9/9/2011 |
-4.10% |
0.50% |
2.40% |
4.00% |
5.00% |
-4.10% |
-3.62% |
-1.31% |
2.64% |
7.77% |
|
|
| |
|
Craig Evers |
Economist |
Brevan Howard |
9/2/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Maria Fiorini Ramirez |
Chief Executive Officer |
MFR, Inc. |
9/14/2011 |
-3.00% |
-1.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
-3.00% |
-3.97% |
-1.09% |
1.88% |
5.95% |
|
|
| |
|
Larry Foley |
Principal |
Bronson Point Partners |
9/15/2011 |
-2.00% |
0.25% |
1.50% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
-2.00% |
-1.76% |
-0.28% |
1.71% |
3.75% |
|
|
| |
|
Carlos Garriga |
Senior Economist |
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
9/7/2011 |
-1.00% |
-0.50% |
0.25% |
0.75% |
1.00% |
-1.00% |
-1.49% |
-1.25% |
-0.51% |
0.49% |
|
|
| |
|
Timothy Ghriskey |
Chief Investment Officer |
Solaris Asset Management LLC |
9/14/2011 |
-2.50% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
-2.50% |
-1.53% |
0.44% |
3.46% |
6.56% |
|
|
| |
|
William Goetzmann |
Director, Intnl Ctr for Finance, Yale SOM |
Yale University |
9/15/2011 |
-1.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
-1.00% |
-1.00% |
-0.01% |
1.99% |
5.05% |
|
|
| |
|
Dan Greenhaus |
Chief Global Strategist |
BTIG LLC |
9/9/2011 |
-4.00% |
-1.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
-4.00% |
-4.96% |
-4.01% |
-2.09% |
0.85% |
|
|
| |
|
Marc Halle |
Managing Director, Portfolio Manager |
Prudential Real Estate Investors |
9/6/2011 |
-0.50% |
1.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
-0.50% |
0.50% |
3.01% |
6.10% |
10.34% |
|
|
| |
|
Mark Hanson |
Founder |
Hanson Advisors |
9/4/2011 |
-5.70% |
-7.00% |
-5.50% |
-4.00% |
-2.00% |
-5.70% |
-12.30% |
-17.12% |
-20.44% |
-22.03% |
|
|
| |
|
Maury Harris |
Chief Economist |
UBS Securities |
9/2/2011 |
2.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.00% |
4.55% |
7.16% |
9.84% |
12.59% |
|
|
| |
|
Jay Hartzell |
Exec Director, Real Estate Finance & Investment Ctr |
University of Texas - Austin |
9/15/2011 |
-2.00% |
0.50% |
1.50% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
-2.00% |
-1.51% |
-0.03% |
1.97% |
5.03% |
|
|
| |
|
Jan Hatzius |
Chief US Economist |
Goldman Sachs |
9/14/2011 |
-5.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
-5.00% |
-5.00% |
-4.05% |
-2.13% |
0.81% |
|
|
| |
|
Donald Haurin |
Professor of Economics, Finance, and Public Policy |
Ohio State University |
9/5/2011 |
-2.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
-2.00% |
-2.00% |
-0.04% |
3.96% |
8.12% |
|
|
| |
|
Andrea Heuson |
Professor of Finance |
University of Miami |
9/14/2011 |
1.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
1.00% |
2.01% |
4.05% |
7.17% |
10.39% |
|
|
| |
|
Stuart Hoffman |
Chief Economist |
PNC Financial Services |
9/2/2011 |
-2.50% |
1.30% |
2.60% |
3.50% |
4.50% |
-2.50% |
-1.23% |
1.34% |
4.88% |
9.60% |
|
|
| |
|
Douglas Holtz-Eakin |
President |
American Action Forum |
9/14/2011 |
-3.50% |
-1.50% |
0.50% |
1.00% |
1.50% |
-3.50% |
-4.95% |
-4.47% |
-3.52% |
-2.07% |
|
|
| |
|
Gene Huang |
Chief Economist |
FedEx |
9/12/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
William Hummer |
Chief Economist |
Wayne Hummer Investments LLC |
9/13/2011 |
-2.90% |
0.95% |
2.00% |
3.71% |
3.85% |
-2.90% |
-1.98% |
-0.02% |
3.69% |
7.68% |
|
|
| |
|
Stan Humphries |
Chief Economist |
Zillow |
9/15/2011 |
-4.50% |
-2.50% |
0.50% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
-4.50% |
-6.89% |
-6.42% |
-4.55% |
-2.16% |
|
|
| |
|
Jim Kleckley |
Director, Bureau of Business Research |
East Carolina University |
9/12/2011 |
0.10% |
2.20% |
2.60% |
3.00% |
3.30% |
0.10% |
2.30% |
4.96% |
8.11% |
11.68% |
|
|
| |
|
Jack Kleinhenz |
Chief Economist |
Kleinhenz & Associates, Inc. |
9/15/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Joe LaVorgna |
Chief US Economist |
Deutsche Bank |
9/15/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Thomas Lawler |
Founder |
Lawler Economic & Housing Outlook |
9/15/2011 |
0.00% |
3.00% |
8.00% |
5.00% |
3.50% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
11.24% |
16.80% |
20.89% |
|
|
| |
|
Edward Leamer |
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast |
UCLA |
9/9/2011 |
-1.50% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
-1.50% |
-1.50% |
0.47% |
4.49% |
8.67% |
|
|
| |
|
Don Leavens / Tim Gill |
Chief Economist |
NEMA Business Information Services |
9/1/2011 |
-2.20% |
0.10% |
1.80% |
2.50% |
4.60% |
-2.20% |
-2.10% |
-0.34% |
2.15% |
6.85% |
|
|
| |
|
Guy LeBas |
Chief Fixed Income Strategist |
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC |
9/7/2011 |
-8.50% |
-1.50% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
-8.50% |
-9.87% |
-8.97% |
-7.15% |
-5.29% |
|
|
| |
|
Kevin Logan |
Chief US Economist |
HSBC |
9/6/2011 |
-6.00% |
-3.00% |
1.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
-6.00% |
-8.82% |
-7.91% |
-5.61% |
-2.77% |
|
|
| |
|
Dean Maki |
Chief US Economist |
Barclays Capital |
9/13/2011 |
-1.80% |
0.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
-1.80% |
-1.80% |
0.65% |
3.67% |
7.82% |
|
|
| |
|
John Makin / Kevin Barry |
Principal / Mortgage Trader |
Caxton Associates |
9/14/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Adolfo Marzol |
Vice Chairman of Enterprise Risk |
Essent U.S. Holdings |
9/2/2011 |
-2.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
-2.00% |
-2.00% |
2.90% |
6.50% |
10.23% |
|
|
| |
|
Chris Mayer |
Sr Vice Dean, Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate |
Columbia Business School |
9/11/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Bruce McCain |
Chief Investment Strategist |
KeyBank |
9/15/2011 |
0.50% |
1.00% |
1.75% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
0.50% |
1.51% |
3.28% |
5.35% |
8.51% |
|
|
| |
|
John McIlwain |
Sr Res Fellow, J. Ronald Terwilliger Chair for Housing |
Urban Land Institute |
9/9/2011 |
-3.00% |
-4.00% |
-2.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
-3.00% |
-6.88% |
-8.74% |
-6.92% |
-4.12% |
|
|
| |
|
James Meil |
Chief Economist |
Eaton Corporation |
9/11/2011 |
-1.30% |
2.20% |
3.10% |
2.70% |
4.40% |
-1.30% |
0.87% |
4.00% |
6.81% |
11.51% |
|
|
| |
|
Robert Mellman |
Managing Director, US Economic Research |
J.P. Morgan Chase |
9/1/2011 |
-2.50% |
-1.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
-2.50% |
-3.47% |
-2.51% |
-0.56% |
1.43% |
|
|
| |
|
Michelle Meyer / Ethan Harris |
Senior U.S. Economist / Head of North America Economics |
B of A Merrill Lynch Global Research |
9/15/2011 |
-6.00% |
-2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
5.00% |
-6.00% |
-7.88% |
-6.04% |
-4.16% |
0.63% |
|
|
| |
|
Ardavan Mobasheri |
Head of Global Economic Research |
American International Group |
9/1/2011 |
-5.60% |
-2.10% |
0.32% |
1.90% |
2.80% |
-5.60% |
-7.58% |
-7.29% |
-5.53% |
-2.88% |
|
|
| |
|
Michael Moran |
Chief Economist |
Daiwa Capital Markets |
9/15/2011 |
-1.40% |
0.50% |
1.00% |
1.50% |
2.00% |
-1.40% |
-0.91% |
0.08% |
1.59% |
3.62% |
|
|
| |
|
Peter Morici |
Professor, Robert H. Smith School of Business |
University of Maryland |
9/14/2011 |
-0.80% |
1.20% |
2.40% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
-0.80% |
0.39% |
2.80% |
5.37% |
8.00% |
|
|
| |
|
Joel Naroff |
President |
Naroff Economic Advisors Inc |
9/9/2011 |
0.00% |
2.70% |
3.90% |
4.60% |
5.50% |
0.00% |
2.70% |
6.71% |
11.61% |
17.75% |
|
|
| |
|
Mark Nielson |
Economist |
MacroEcon Global Advisors |
9/15/2011 |
-4.20% |
-1.70% |
0.60% |
2.30% |
2.50% |
-4.20% |
-5.83% |
-5.26% |
-3.08% |
-0.66% |
|
|
| |
|
Frank Nothaft |
Chief Economist |
Freddie Mac |
9/15/2011 |
-4.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
-4.00% |
-4.00% |
-2.08% |
0.86% |
4.89% |
|
|
| |
|
Patrick O'Keefe |
Director Of Economic Research |
J.H. Cohn, LLP |
9/6/2011 |
-4.20% |
-2.50% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
3.50% |
-4.20% |
-6.60% |
-6.60% |
-4.73% |
-1.39% |
|
|
| |
|
Jim O'Sullivan |
Global Chief Economist |
MF Global |
9/14/2011 |
-1.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
-1.00% |
1.97% |
5.03% |
9.23% |
13.60% |
|
|
| |
|
Gary Painter |
Director of Research, Lusk Center for Real Estate |
University of Southern California |
9/1/2011 |
-2.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
-2.00% |
-2.00% |
-2.00% |
-0.04% |
1.96% |
|
|
| |
|
Michael Paslawskyj |
Regional Economist |
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation |
9/13/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Nicholas Perna |
Chief Economist |
Perna Associates |
9/11/2011 |
-6.90% |
-2.10% |
1.80% |
2.70% |
3.10% |
-6.90% |
-8.86% |
-7.21% |
-4.71% |
-1.76% |
|
|
| |
|
Edward Pierzak |
Chief Inv Strategist - Property, N. America / Portfolio
Mgr |
Henderson Global Investors |
9/15/2011 |
-4.00% |
-1.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
-4.00% |
-4.96% |
-1.16% |
2.80% |
6.91% |
|
|
| |
|
Larry Pierzchalski |
Exec VP - Risk Management |
MGIC |
9/13/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Edward Pinto |
Resident Fellow |
American Enterprise Institute |
9/13/2011 |
-5.00% |
-1.50% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
-5.00% |
-6.42% |
-5.49% |
-3.60% |
-0.71% |
|
|
| |
|
Douglas Poutasse |
Head of Strategy and Research |
Bentall Kennedy |
9/15/2011 |
-3.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
-3.00% |
-1.06% |
1.91% |
5.98% |
10.22% |
|
|
| |
|
Lynn Reaser |
Chief Economist |
Point Loma Nazarene University |
9/1/2011 |
-0.50% |
1.50% |
2.30% |
4.00% |
5.00% |
-0.50% |
0.99% |
3.32% |
7.45% |
12.82% |
|
|
| |
|
David Resler / Aichi Amemiya |
Chief Economist / VP, Economist |
Nomura Securities International, Inc. |
9/15/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Barry Ritholtz |
CEO |
FusionIQ |
9/14/2011 |
-6.00% |
-5.00% |
-4.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
-6.00% |
-10.70% |
-14.27% |
-14.27% |
-12.56% |
|
|
| |
|
Kenneth Rosen |
Chairman |
Rosen Consulting Group |
9/14/2011 |
0.70% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
3.50% |
4.00% |
0.70% |
2.71% |
5.28% |
8.97% |
13.33% |
|
|
| |
|
Chris Rupkey |
Chief Financial Economist |
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ |
9/14/2011 |
-1.00% |
2.50% |
3.50% |
2.00% |
4.00% |
-1.00% |
1.48% |
5.03% |
7.13% |
11.41% |
|
|
| |
|
John Ryding / Conrad DeQuadros |
Chief Economist / Senior Economist |
RDQ Economics |
9/15/2011 |
-3.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
-3.00% |
-3.00% |
-2.03% |
-0.07% |
1.93% |
|
|
| |
|
Ignacio San Martin |
Principal Economist |
BBVA Research |
9/8/2011 |
-5.30% |
0.30% |
0.60% |
1.30% |
0.70% |
-5.30% |
-5.02% |
-4.45% |
-3.20% |
-2.53% |
|
|
| |
|
Anthony Sanders |
Professor of Real Estate Finance |
George Mason University |
9/15/2011 |
-4.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
5.00% |
-4.00% |
-2.08% |
0.86% |
4.89% |
10.14% |
|
|
| |
|
Andrew Schaffler |
Research Analyst |
Cohen & Steers |
9/1/2011 |
-1.25% |
-2.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
-1.25% |
-3.22% |
-2.26% |
-0.30% |
1.69% |
|
|
| |
|
David Semmens |
U.S. Macro Economist |
Standard Chartered Bank |
9/15/2011 |
-6.00% |
1.00% |
2.50% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
-6.00% |
-5.06% |
-2.69% |
1.21% |
5.25% |
|
|
| |
|
Gary Shilling |
President |
A. Gary Shilling & Co. |
9/15/2011 |
-5.00% |
-10.00% |
-6.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
-5.00% |
-14.50% |
-19.63% |
-19.63% |
-19.63% |
|
|
| |
|
John Silvia |
Chief Economist |
Wells Fargo |
9/9/2011 |
-0.15% |
2.42% |
4.34% |
4.38% |
3.84% |
-0.15% |
2.27% |
6.70% |
11.38% |
15.66% |
|
|
| |
|
Allen Sinai |
President,
CEO, Chief Global Economist & Strategist |
Decision Economics |
9/15/2011 |
-5.20% |
3.40% |
3.00% |
3.10% |
2.80% |
-5.20% |
-1.98% |
0.96% |
4.09% |
7.01% |
|
|
| |
|
Matthew Sippel |
Senior Partner |
Indus Capital Partners |
9/1/2011 |
-3.00% |
1.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
5.00% |
-3.00% |
-2.03% |
0.91% |
3.94% |
9.13% |
|
|
| |
|
James Smith |
Chief Economist |
Parsec Financial Management |
9/8/2011 |
2.60% |
3.80% |
4.30% |
4.20% |
5.70% |
2.60% |
6.50% |
11.08% |
15.74% |
22.34% |
|
|
| |
|
Sean Snaith |
Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness |
University of Central Florida |
9/15/2011 |
-3.90% |
0.25% |
1.50% |
4.00% |
6.25% |
-3.90% |
-3.66% |
-2.21% |
1.70% |
8.05% |
|
|
| |
|
Stephen Stanley |
Chief Economist |
Pierpont Securities |
9/13/2011 |
0.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
4.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
5.06% |
8.74% |
13.09% |
|
|
| |
|
Susan Sterne |
Chief Economist |
Economic Analysis Associates, Inc. |
9/6/2011 |
0.10% |
0.80% |
-1.50% |
1.50% |
2.20% |
0.10% |
0.90% |
-0.61% |
0.88% |
3.10% |
|
|
| |
|
Rob Stevenson |
Managing Director |
Macquarie Securities |
9/7/2011 |
-0.50% |
1.25% |
1.75% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
-0.50% |
0.74% |
2.51% |
5.07% |
8.22% |
|
|
| |
|
Thomas Swift |
Chief Economist |
American Chemistry Council |
9/6/2011 |
-4.50% |
1.25% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
-4.50% |
-3.31% |
-0.89% |
2.08% |
5.66% |
|
|
| |
|
Diane Swonk / Adolfo Laurenti |
Chief Economist / Deputy Chief Economist |
Mesirow Financial |
9/7/2011 |
-4.10% |
1.30% |
3.00% |
2.90% |
2.50% |
-4.10% |
-2.85% |
0.06% |
2.96% |
5.54% |
|
|
| |
|
Gianluca Tarolli |
Executive Director, Investment Strategist |
Banque Heritage |
9/14/2011 |
-0.71% |
1.15% |
1.14% |
3.01% |
2.92% |
-0.71% |
0.43% |
1.58% |
4.63% |
7.69% |
|
|
| |
|
Christopher Thornberg |
President |
Beacon Economics |
9/15/2011 |
0.85% |
1.85% |
2.25% |
2.61% |
2.94% |
0.85% |
2.72% |
5.03% |
7.77% |
10.94% |
|
|
| |
|
Jeff Thredgold |
Chief Economist |
Thredgold Economic Associates |
9/8/2011 |
-4.20% |
-1.00% |
2.00% |
4.00% |
5.50% |
-4.20% |
-5.16% |
-3.26% |
0.61% |
6.14% |
|
|
| |
|
Bart Van Ark |
Chief Economist |
Conference Board |
9/15/2011 |
-4.10% |
-0.30% |
4.00% |
7.50% |
7.50% |
-4.10% |
-4.39% |
-0.56% |
6.89% |
14.91% |
|
|
| |
|
Susan Wachter |
Professor of Real Estate, Finance, City & Regional
Planning |
Wharton - University of Pennsylvania |
9/2/2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Bill Watkins |
Exec
Director, Economic Forecasting and Research Center |
California Lutheran University |
9/15/2011 |
-1.10% |
-0.50% |
0.50% |
1.25% |
1.75% |
-1.10% |
-1.59% |
-1.10% |
0.13% |
1.89% |
|
|
| |
|
Brian Wesbury / Robert Stein |
Chief Economist / Senior Economist |
First Trust Advisors |
9/1/2011 |
-0.40% |
2.80% |
3.20% |
3.20% |
3.20% |
-0.40% |
2.39% |
5.67% |
9.05% |
12.54% |
|
|
| |
|
David Wyss |
Economist |
Brown University |
9/1/2011 |
-2.50% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
-2.50% |
-2.50% |
-0.55% |
2.43% |
5.51% |
|
|
| |
|
Lawrence Yun |
Chief Economist |
National Association of Realtors |
9/9/2011 |
-3.50% |
1.50% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
-3.50% |
-2.05% |
0.40% |
3.41% |
6.51% |
|
|
| |
|
Mark Zandi / Celia Chen |
Chief Economist / Senior Director |
Moody's Analytics |
9/14/2011 |
-4.07% |
0.91% |
5.46% |
6.85% |
4.57% |
-4.07% |
-3.20% |
2.09% |
9.08% |
14.07% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Average |
-2.53% |
-0.13% |
1.77% |
2.80% |
3.34% |
-2.53% |
-2.62% |
-0.84% |
1.99% |
5.44% |
|
|
| |
|
|
September 2011 Survey Summary: |
|
Median |
-2.80% |
0.25% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
3.10% |
-2.80% |
-2.03% |
-0.24% |
2.64% |
6.56% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
High |
2.60% |
5.00% |
8.00% |
8.30% |
7.90% |
2.60% |
6.50% |
11.24% |
16.80% |
22.34% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Low |
-8.50% |
-10.00% |
-6.00% |
-4.00% |
-2.00% |
-8.50% |
-14.50% |
-19.63% |
-20.44% |
-22.03% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Standard Dev |
2.10% |
2.52% |
2.06% |
1.60% |
1.47% |
2.10% |
4.00% |
5.54% |
6.72% |
7.83% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
All survey data based upon expected
performance of U.S. home prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S.
National Home Price Index (NSA). The
non-cumulative annual data is expressed on a Q4-over-preceding Q4 basis. |
|
|
Powered
by |
|
| |
|
* Some panelists requested that their specific
responses be held in confidence. These appear as blank in the table
above. However, confidential responses are incorporated into the
summary statistics. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pulsenomics LLC |
|
|
|
| |
|
The information in this report was collected from third parties
and compiled by Pulsenomics LLC.
Neither the sponsor of this survey (MacroMarkets LLC) nor its producer
(Pulsenomics LLC) makes any representations as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, and neither party has any
obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a
recipient thereof in the event that any forecast or estimate set forth herein
changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This report is provided for
informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer
to buy or sell any financial instruments.
If this report is reproduced, distributed or published by any third
party for any purpose, "MacroMarkets LLC and Pulsenomics LLC" must
be noted as the source within any such third party reproduction or
publication. |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|