MacroMarkets LLC recently published the results of its first monthly survey of home price expectations. The data, collected over the first two weeks of May, suggested that the onset of price recovery in U.S. single family real estate is widely expected by 2011, and home prices will increase by more than 12.4% between 2010 and the end of 2014. The survey results were the headline story on page A2 of the May 19, 2010 edition of The Wall Street Journal.

These conclusions reflected an average of the 92 responses received during the first half of this month from an expert panel of more than one hundred economists, housing analysts, investment and market strategists.

Despite its importance, concrete information and authoritative opinion regarding expected future home prices has tended to be sporadic and diffuse. This survey is intended as one means to address this dearth of useful information. The MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey is based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Macroeconomic Advisers, an economic modeling, forecasting and policy analysis firm noted the following about the survey results in its May 19th Macro Musing client bulletin:

“The range of outcomes, however, is stunning. By the end of 2014, the cumulative difference in the level of house prices implied by the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasters is 56% (from +37% to -18%). Other things equal, this translates to a difference of roughly $14 trillion in household net worth by then. The direct impact on our forecasts of consumer spending and housing starts of making such different assumption would be very large indeed. The indirect effects on GDP, unemployment, inflation, and hence monetary policy would also be ‘game-changing’.”

For information regarding the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey, Click here.